eLab - University of California, Riverside

eLab eXchange

eLab eXchange Web of Misery - Which Online Indicators of Distress Will Grow Most?

The eLab eXchange has just launched "The Web of Misery," a prediction market tournament with 10 markets that reflect new online indicators of economic distress. The Wall Street Journal blogged about it recently. Come and give it your best shot - forecast just how bad you think the economy is going to get in the next few months!

During periods of economic hardship. conventional wisdom suggests that some people tend to increase their level of certain behaviors, for example, they may "cling to guns or religion," or perhaps turn to alcohol or gambling in an attempt to relieve any pressures they may be feeling about a "rough patch."

Additionally, the skyrocketing costs of food, health care and gas, not to mention the real estate downturn, suggest that, in general, many consumers will become more careful about how they spend their hard-earned dollars.

The Web of Misery captures 10 of these behaviors and let's you forecast their impact. The outcome of these 10 markets will be determined early in the third quarter of 2008 using Nielsen Online's NetView audience measurement service.

It's free to join and play so try your hand at judging the impact of the economic slowdown and sign up at eLab eXchange today!

What is the eLab eXchange?

The eLab eXchange is set of prediction markets that allows consumers to judge the likelihood of future events in the online retailing space and give their opinions about the best (or worst) aspects of online shopping. We started the eLab eXchange to to give us a window on how consumers like you think and feel about the Internet.

The eXchange has two different types of markets that you can play in:

IDEA MARKETS: You can express your preference (positive or negative!) for particular features of online retailing sites (like live talk on a site, or the ability to pay with PayPal). Or give your opinions of the best (or not so much) trends in Internet retailing.

COMPETITIVE FORECASTS: You can try your hand at guessing the dollar value of online sales during specific seasons (e.g. Holiday, Valentine’s Day, Mother’s Day, and so on)

It’s free to join and play in the eLab eXchange and you can play in any or all of the markets eLab eXchange currently has running. You can win prizes based on how well you judge events. Some of the markets have actual market values (like the percentage growth in online holiday shopping this year compared to last year). Other markets are opinion markets in which you can rate how much you like (or don’t like) particular features of shopping sites or the actual sites themselves. These markets are judged by panels of industry and academic experts and the winners are those whose judgments match those of the experts.